The Monty Hall Problem: Use of an Interactive Excel Application to Encourage Critical Thinking and Illustrate Probability Concepts in Operations and Supply Chain Management Courses
David Weltman, Morgan Swink, and Travis Tokar
M.J. Neeley School of Business, Texas Christian University, USA
Volume 15: 2021, pp. 151-172; ABSTRACT
This teaching brief describes an active learning workshop to help students understand basic ideas regarding conditional probability, apply Bayes’ Theorem to operational problems, and see for themselves that sometimes one’s intuition may be fallible. We use the interesting, and often perplexing Monty Hall problem to introduce students to probability concepts in an engaging critical thinking exercise. Students engage in an Excel simulation so they can see for themselves implications of decisions made. Instructors may use a simulation based on the classic Monty Hall problem or a site location decision scenario. In the site location scenario, an initial location for a distribution center is selected (among three possibilities) and the student must decide whether to change this decision based on new information that becomes available. Post workshop results showed that students found this activity to be an effective way of learning about the surprising decision a proper quantitative analysis provides. For faculty teaching probability concepts in operations and supply chain management courses at both the undergraduate and graduate levels, the workshop is useful in gaining student acceptance of the value in learning application of sometimes esoteric quantitative techniques. The exercise is also effective in encouraging critical thinking regarding initial impressions in probability-based decisions.
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